I think we're now in reflexive downside scenario.
MSTR is at 1x NAV, OTC desks are seeing deleveraging and "capitulation", funds are going out of business.
Many DeFi protocols have 50%+ of their revenue directly correlated to market prices. as ETH, BTC, and SOL go down in value, their USD revenue goes lower.
Given the low overall revenue profile of DeFi relative to its fixed costs, the operating leverage becomes an issue and teams are forced to cut costs if the environment continues for much longer.
Once prices go below "fair intrinsic value", reflexivity starts to decline. There are several less liquid small caps that are now trading near treasury value, but many bluechip defi protocols are slightly expensive, likely due to the flight to quality amongst directional funds..
Aggregate loans outstanding in EVM land are down 23% from peak and on-chain interest rates are up ~2% and now have a sufficiently positive spread vs. t-bills.
Market share beneficiaries since Oct 10th are Maple and Morpho, due to USDe related borrows unwinding from Aave, Maple onboarding SyrupUSDT on Aave, Morpho continuing to get deposits from Coinbase (if I had to guess).
Aggregate lending protocol marketcaps are down ~28% on average, and have seen a decline in their multiple vs. loans outstanding (8.6% multiple compression).
We're probably at least 1/2 way through this kpi down cycle, but no signs of a trough yet.
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