🚨P&L metrics just hit bear market bottom levels Last time it was in 2018 and 2022 before altseason I analyzed macro, on-chain flows and cycle structure Here’s what it means and when BTC will hit $200K👇🧵

❶ Right now we’re going through an extended correction Fear dominates volumes are down and retail interest is almost gone But if you look at data instead of emotions - it’s really not that bad What looks like weakness is often just a phase of redistribution

❷ P/L metrics have dropped to zones the market only saw at the bottoms of 2018 and 2022 This is the moment when most traders lock in losses and profitable positions almost disappear Historically after these phases the market entered a recovery stage and slowly gained strength

❸ Macro is also supportive - the Fed has already made two rate cuts And it’s definitely not the last one Powell also mentioned that QE could start within a few months So the macro environment is lining up for liquidity to flow into crypto

❹ A similar setup was seen in 2021 It all started with small rate cuts just like now It ended with aggressive reductions But the market still didn’t start pumping right away It takes a few months for the market to recharge

❻ What does all this mean? The conditions for a new rally will come but they’re not here yet They’ll likely align over the next few months By then only the strongest players will remain - and they’ll take the biggest profits