almost 2yrs later, we didn't reach the price band target, but our ATH was not too far. I can still see BTC getting inside this range in the near term future, but time is running out The whole timeline is bullish again with the WE bounce however for me its time to reduce BTC (1)
what are my moon targets ? i'm actually quite pessimistic. if we look at last cycles ATH, we did 20K > 67K a 3.3x move. This ratio is decreasing every cycle. so starting from 67K my guesstimate is 134K-167K. when we reach that, i'll probably get out no matter what. (1/x)
reasons why I would do that, is market exhaustion. we've been in a run from 17K post-FTX. MSTR cannot be included every year in the NSDQ. ETFs have been on the market for 1.5 years. Every who wanted to allocate in a new asset class has had time to do so (2)
the remaining thesis for the broader crypto market is thin. "AI" and "Tokenization" are just buzz words. How a token, an EXISTING one would capture any value at all ? I still see so many new projects and market dilution (3)
personally i don't think the FED would change the big picture on crypto. If there is a correction on equities, then BTC and crypto will follow hard. if risk assets are bid, ofc crypto would go up but i think the risk/reward isn't great anymore in BTC (4)
so my strategy is to take money off the market on BTC (hedging to delay sales into FY2026). im not hedging 100% but around 40% of what I've got left. i keep asymetrical upside to the market on specific bets. ZEC, STRK (Starknet), ICP. (5)
due to rapid price appreciation, ZEC is now my biggest bag. In other times, I would be rushing to secure some profits there and rebalance to BTC, but I think ZEC is being heavily repriced and ST charts don't matter, and doing exactly the contrary. (6)
I believe we can have both BTC 75K and ZEC 1000$-3000$ as OG whales exit and reposition for asymetrical upside in the true encrypted Bitcoin. ICP is a more brave bet, believing its the next SOL or ETH. more a lottery ticket. main edge is that there is no more unlocked token (6)
I believe we can have both BTC 75K and ZEC 1000$-3000$ as OG whales exit and reposition for asymetrical upside in the true encrypted Bitcoin. ICP is a more brave bet, believing its the next SOL or ETH. more a lottery ticket. main edge is that there is no more unlocked token (7)
unfortunately - i bought STRK (MSTR preferred) at local top, now I understand why you get paid to hold a call in this shit and lost 1.5years of coupon in 1 month. not happy but no taking the L yet. same on SBET. Risk on those 2 still largely manageable with the size i have (8)
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