think huma's got an interesting take here
if I had to guess, since we've been in distribution and seen an immense amount of whales offloading btc for ages now, the drawdown won't be nearly as significant as many are hoping
could see us maybe getting to saylor's average, especially with dat selling and if the broader market takes a serious turn, but a lot more supply has been locked up longer-term
either way, mostly interested in things that've been consistently bringing in revenue and I expect will continue to do so even if btc keeps bleeding. pump (obv, I've been shilling non-stop for it, especially when it's below ipo price), and hype at a minimum (ideally, after they announce what's going on with the team supply unlocking soon)
while I thought we might be able to get by the 4 year cycle this time, think it was like the digital gold narrative. almost there, but not quite ready
Many signs point to the crypto bull market having ended last December/January.
- BTC/GOLD topped in December.
- BTC/SPX only went marginally higher than its January top.
- Nearly all alt/BTC pairs topped in December/January. HYPE and BNB being notable outliers. ETH/BTC, after its summer bull run, went only marginally higher than its December level.
Bulls will point to ever increasing ETF and stablecoin inflows, but they've had no net effect on prices YTD.
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