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Brad Setser
Brad Setser
The current inability of most of the GCC countries to get oil to market is a much bigger threat to the US economy than the possibility that some GCC countries (and not just sanctioned countries) might sell some oil to China for yuan ... 1/
selling China oil for yuan also doesn't immediately crete "euroyuan" -- not if the funds are only used to buy Chinese manufactures/ held on deposit in China (as Russia and Iran have sometimes been forced to do) 2/
Right now, because of the absence of the normal export (and budget) proceeds from oil sales, the GCC countries are global borrowers not lenders ... inverse petrodollars in other words 4/
And since CNY rates are low it wouldn't be a total surprise if someone ends up placing a panda bond too -- that won't be the end the dollar, just a sign of a squeeze on global oil flows 5/
Bottom line: so long as "Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still at a near halt" the normal flow of funds into the Gulf is also at a halt ... that doesn't meanest the richest oil states in the world need a US bailout, but it does have predictable consequences. 6/6
@dnegrin i.e GCC becomes a bigger draw, temporarily, on eurodollars -- and competes with the US treasury and some EMs to raise funds in the dollar bond market

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